Introduction
Why Man Utd have been better than their results
With just two Premier League victories since the beginning of April, it might sound absurd to suggest that Manchester United have shown progress under Ruben Amorim. Yet, when you look beyond the results and into the data, the story is very different.
1. The Results: A Bleak Picture
Since the start of April, United have managed just two wins in the Premier League. That is a dismal return for a club of their stature. In fact, only Tottenham have picked up fewer points in their last 10 league matches.
For many observers, that statistic alone is damning. But football is not just about points; it’s about performances that lead to points. And when we break down the performances, a different story begins to emerge.
2. The Underlying Numbers Tell Another Story
United’s underlying metrics reveal they have been among the most proactive teams in the division recently. Excluding penalties—so we focus purely on open play—United stand out in two areas:
- They have taken the most shots in the league over the past 10 matches.
- They have faced fewer shots than almost anyone else, with only Manchester City conceding fewer attempts.
On paper, that’s the profile of a top-four team. The problem? Converting chances and keeping them out.
3. The Issue in Both Boxes
The difference between expected goals (xG) and actual goals explains much of United’s misery.
- Offensively: United have scored seven fewer goals than their chances suggest they should have.
- Defensively: They have conceded four more goals than expected from the shots faced.
That 11-goal swing has a huge impact in a league where fine margins separate victory and defeat.
Why does this matter?
Because while xG isn’t perfect, it is one of the best indicators of whether a team is doing the right things. And by this metric, United are performing at a level much higher than their points tally shows.
4. Context Matters: Playing Against 10 Men
Some critics argue that United’s numbers are inflated because they played long spells against 10-man Bournemouth and Aston Villa. Yet being a man up doesn’t always guarantee dominance—Liverpool’s recent struggle against 10-man Newcastle is proof of that.
Even accounting for those scenarios, United’s overall dominance in chance creation is clear. In fact, only six Premier League sides have been more dominant in their last 10 matches. If efficiency matched performance, United could have double their current points tally from that run.
5. Why the Underperformance?
So, what’s behind the gap between performance and results? There are several possible explanations:
- Lack of Quality – Some players may simply not be good enough. Calls for a new striker, winger, and goalkeeper make sense in this context.
- Confidence Issues – Players low on confidence tend to miss chances they would normally bury.
- Bad Luck – Football always has an element of randomness. Shots against the woodwork, deflections, or inspired saves can distort short-term results.
- Tactical Risks – Amorim’s system has led to United generating lower-quality chances while conceding higher-quality ones, which amplifies the importance of execution.
The truth is likely a mixture of all four.
6. Amorim’s Tactics: A Double-Edged Sword
Since taking charge in December, Ruben Amorim has implemented a clear tactical philosophy. His preference for a back-three system has drawn criticism, but the numbers show mixed outcomes:
- Attack: United are creating plenty of opportunities but many of them are from low-quality positions, meaning they’re harder to convert.
- Defense: Opponents are being restricted in terms of volume, but the shots they do get are often from dangerous areas.
This combination—creating low-quality chances while conceding high-quality ones—is a recipe for frustration. Even so, expected goal data already adjusts for shot quality, which suggests United’s players are still underperforming relative to what is expected.
7. Signs of Gradual Progress
Looking at the bigger picture, particularly over United’s 30 league games under Amorim, there are signs of steady progress. Since March, the team has been:
- Creating more and better chances than opponents.
- Controlling games more consistently.
- Showing tactical cohesion despite limited time under the new coach.
The yellow trend line (xG difference) continues to rise, even if the black line (actual results) has lagged behind. This gap is frustrating now, but it often closes over time.
8. Why Expected Goals Matter in the Long Run
Skeptics will argue that goals win games, not stats. They are right—but history also tells us that teams who dominate xG usually rise up the table eventually.
Expected goals capture the repeatable aspects of football: creating quality chances and preventing them. Teams that consistently do those two things end up successful over a larger sample size.
United’s inefficiency in both boxes cannot continue forever. Over time, either the players will find their rhythm, or changes in personnel will bring the efficiency needed.
9. The Road Ahead for United
So, what does this all mean for Manchester United’s future under Ruben Amorim?
- Recruitment is key – A reliable finisher and a top-class goalkeeper could transform United’s fortunes overnight.
- Patience is required – Amorim’s tactical philosophy is starting to bear fruit, even if results haven’t yet followed.
- Clinical edge must improve – Without efficiency in both penalty areas, no system can succeed.
- Stability matters – Constant managerial upheaval has harmed United in the past. Giving Amorim time could be crucial.
10. Conclusion
Manchester United’s recent Premier League record doesn’t make pretty reading. Two wins since April, fewer points than almost every rival, and questions about Ruben Amorim’s tactics have left fans frustrated.
But look beyond the results, and you see a very different picture: a team creating more than almost anyone else, restricting opponents effectively, and simply failing to execute in the decisive moments.
Football is cruel in the short term, but in the long run, performance levels tend to dictate results. Amorim may not have delivered the immediate transformation fans hoped for, but the underlying trends suggest United are moving in the right direction.
If finishing improves, defensive mistakes are cut out, and summer recruitment strengthens the weak points, United’s results could soon start reflecting the reality of their performances.
And when that happens, the conversation about Amorim’s future might sound very different.